ULEZ Shows Massive Success One Year After London-Wide Expansion
Latest figures show ULEZ achieving unprecedented compliance rates of 96.7% in 2025, with dramatic air quality improvements across London and projections showing revenue will end by 2026-27.
25/04/2026 8:13 am
Latest Updates from Official Sources
March 2025: Latest Compliance and Air Quality Figures
The most recent data from Transport for London shows remarkable progress:
Record Compliance Rates in 2025:
- 96.7% of vehicles seen driving in London now meet ULEZ emissions standards (up from 91.6% in June 2023 and just 39% in February 2017)
- Van compliance in outer London now over 90% for the first time (was just 12% in 2017)
- 58% reduction of non-compliant vehicles in London daily in September 2024 compared to June 2023
2025 Air Quality Improvements:
- Particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions 31% lower in outer London in 2024 than without ULEZ expansion
- Nitrogen Oxide (NOx) emissions from cars and vans 14% lower in outer London
- 99% of London’s monitoring sites showing improved air quality levels
- 80% reduction in people exposed to illegal pollution levels in the most deprived communities
2026-27 Revenue Projections: ULEZ Income to End
TfL projections confirm that ULEZ will stop generating net revenue by the 2026/2027 financial year as compliance rates continue to rise. This marks the transition from revenue-generating policy to purely environmental measure.
2025 Target Achievement: Mayor Khan stated: “It’s thanks to our bold policies, including ULEZ, that we are now set to get London’s air to within legal limits by 2025 – 184 years earlier than previously projected.”
The report reveals significant environmental benefits based on 2024 data compared to scenarios without ULEZ:
- Nitrogen Oxide (NOx) emissions from cars and vans in outer London are 13% and 16% lower than would have been expected without the London-wide expansion
- Particulate matter (PM2.5) exhaust emissions from cars and vans in outer London are estimated to be 31% lower than they would have been without ULEZ expansion
- For some of the most deprived communities living near London’s busiest roads, there has been an estimated 80% reduction in people exposed to illegal levels of air pollution
Independent Air Quality Analysis: Mixed Results
While TfL’s reports show dramatic improvements, independent academic research presents a more nuanced picture. Imperial College London researchers found that ULEZ’s initial impact was “small in comparison to longer-term improvements” already occurring in London.
While TfL’s reports show dramatic improvements, independent academic research presents a more nuanced picture. Imperial College London researchers found that ULEZ’s initial impact was “small in comparison to longer-term improvements” already occurring in London.
Their study of the first 12 weeks after ULEZ introduction in 2019 found:
- Average reduction of less than 3% for nitrogen dioxide concentrations
- Insignificant effects on ozone and particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations
- The biggest improvements in air quality actually took place before ULEZ was introduced
Dr Marc Stettler from Imperial’s Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering concluded: “Our research suggests that a ULEZ on its own is not an effective strategy to improve air quality – it works best when combined with a broader set of policies.”
However, the Imperial College London study was from 2019 examining ULEZ’s initial weeks, while current 2025 data shows dramatically different results. The latest figures demonstrate ULEZ’s long-term effectiveness as part of London’s comprehensive air quality strategy.
ULEZ Revenue: A Major Money-Maker for TfL
ULEZ has become a significant revenue generator for Transport for London, raising questions about whether it’s primarily an environmental policy or a stealth tax.
Revenue Figures Tell the Story
- 2022: ULEZ raised £224 million gross income
- First year of expansion (2023-24): Generated an estimated £200-300 million in net revenue
- Six months post-expansion: £115.8 million in charge income plus £43.8 million in penalty notices
- Outstanding fines: 810,389 unpaid penalty charge notices as of April 2024
The expansion boosted TfL’s income by approximately £93.6 million compared to pre-expansion levels, with penalty charge notices adding substantial additional revenue estimated between £130-260 million.
The “Stealth Tax” Debate
Critics argue ULEZ functions as a regressive tax that disproportionately affects:
- Low-income drivers with older vehicles
- Small businesses operating vans and delivery vehicles
- Outer London residents with limited public transport alternatives
Vehicle owners face daily charges of £12.50, with the financial burden ranging from £5,000 to £30,000 for vehicle replacements. Trade associations warn these costs negatively impact local economies, particularly in outer London areas where public transport is less comprehensive.
Revenue Decline Projected
TfL admits the scheme’s days as a money-maker are numbered. Net revenue is projected to become “negligible” by 2027 as compliance rates increase and fewer vehicles pay the charge. The zone is expected to stop generating a surplus by 2027, transforming from a revenue source into purely an environmental measure.
Key Performance Indicators Show Continued Success
A 2025 report found that nitrogen dioxide levels were 27% lower across the city than they would have been without ULEZ and its expansion, with a drop of 54% in central London. This represents the equivalent of removing all emissions from London’s major airports combined.
Camera Vandalism and “Blade Runner” Activity
Over 4,500 Camera Vandalisations Since March 2023
Data from anti-ULEZ activist groups shows there have been more than 4,500 counts of vandalisation of ULEZ cameras in little over a year. With each camera believed to be worth up to £10,000, the total cost to TfL could be as high as £45m, though TfL states the actual cost is “significantly lower”.
The worst-affected boroughs include:
- Bexley: 717 vandalisations, with only half of cameras currently active
- Bromley: 57% of cameras currently vandalised
- Kingston-upon-Thames: 56% of cameras currently vandalised
- Havering, Hillingdon, and Croydon also seeing high levels of damage
Recent Legal Actions Against Vandals
In September 2024, three men were sentenced for ULEZ camera attacks. Steven Hislop, 55, and Leonard Guy, 71, caused £2,712 of damage to a camera in Waltham Forest, while Peter Whibley, 58, caused £1,800 worth of damage to a camera pole in Kingston-upon-Thames.
In May 2025, broadcaster Laurence Fox appeared at Westminster Magistrates’ Court to stand trial for allegedly encouraging people to vandalise ULEZ cameras.
Protests at Mayor Khan’s Home
“Tooting Four” Found Guilty of Harassment
Four anti-ULEZ protesters were found guilty in December 2024 of harassing London Mayor Sadiq Khan outside his home. The demonstrators, dubbed the ‘Tooting Four’, staged their “KHANAGE @ KHANS” demonstration close to Khan’s home in Streatham in April 2024.
Nicholas Arlett was ordered to pay £1,360, while Allison Young, Martin Whitehead and Lloyd Dunsford were each asked to pay £960 in fines and costs.
Earlier Protest Incidents
In October 2023, the group Action Against Ulez pitched tents and raised signs outside Khan’s property in South London. The group brought a caravan with “Sack Khan” written on the side and held signs reading “Are you listening yet Mr Khan” and “Stop the toxic air lie”.
What’s Happening in 2026?
No Standards Changes Through 2026
The Mayor has committed to making no changes to the ULEZ standards during his current term, which runs through 2028. This means:
- Euro 4 standard for petrol vehicles remains unchanged
- Euro 6 standard for diesel vehicles remains unchanged
- No implementation of Euro 7 standards before July 2025 at earliest
Revenue Projections for 2026-27
Critical Financial Transition:
- ULEZ expected to generate zero net revenue by 2026-27
- Transformation from income source to purely environmental policy
- All remaining revenue continues to be reinvested in London transport
Current exemptions timeline:
- Community transport minibuses: exempt until October 2025
- Wheelchair accessible vehicles: exempt until October 2027
Future Considerations
While there are no official plans to expand the ULEZ zone area, experts believe the government could tighten emission standards in the future, potentially moving to Euro 7 standards or higher charges for non-compliant vehicles.
The ULEZ is expected to stop making a surplus by 2027 as the percentage of compliant vehicles continues to rise.
Opposition and Legal Challenges
Political Opposition Continues
Sir Sadiq Khan has revealed he faced ‘abuse and threats’ to his life over the controversial ULEZ expansion, describing it as probably the hardest thing he’s done in his career. He said the policy has become ‘a proxy for a culture war’.
The ULEZ expansion became a political flashpoint, with some protesters seeking to destroy cameras that monitor compliance. In July 2023, it cost Khan’s Labour Party a chance at winning Boris Johnson’s former parliamentary seat in Uxbridge.
High Court Challenges Failed
On 28 July 2023, the High Court ruled against challenges to ULEZ that were made by five Greater London area councils, and the expansion went ahead as planned on 29 August 2023.
Looking Ahead
The data shows ULEZ is achieving its environmental goals, with compliance rates continuing to rise and air quality improvements documented across London. However, political opposition and vandalism continue, reflecting the divisive nature of the policy.
In his re-election manifesto, Mayor Khan committed to “keeping the London-wide Ulez standards the same over the next four years” and pledged not to “move the goalposts” regarding which vehicles are exempt.
For the latest official updates on ULEZ, visit the London City Hall ULEZ page or Transport for London’s ULEZ information.
This article was compiled from official sources including Transport for London, the Greater London Authority, court records, and verified news reports.
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